The purpose of technology forecasting in this context is to assess the capability of technology to meet the current and forecasted future needs of the customers. This requires in all cases the translation of customer needs, quite often expressed in terms of benefits, to specifications for price, function, and form, often thought of as attributes, at the product level. These in turn must be converted into performance criteria for the technology. For example, throughput of traffic over a city's road system may ultimately depend upon the processing speed of microprocessors in remote locations. If this is a factor controlling the development of that part of ITS (Intelligent Transportation System), then the speed of microprocessors must be forecasted.
In making the assessment of future technological capabilities, there are three questions to be answered. Will the forecasted technology's capability:
⢠Be sufficient to meet customer needs?
⢠Be insufficient to meet customer needs?
⢠Surpass forecasted customer needs?
If the technological capability will satisfy customer needs, no further analysis is required. If it appears that technological capability will fall short of satisfying customer needs, the organization must decide if this is a limitation of the technology or the result of the amount of effort being given to advancing the state of the art. If it is a result of the amount of effort, what effort could the organization put in place that would advance the technology faster than the general market, thereby giving the organization a significant edge? If the capability of technology appears to be in excess of what is required by its application, then the question the organization must answer is, "What new needs is the availability of this technology likely to create?" The organization may also want to assess its own technological capability versus that of the industry. Our technology forecasting techniques facilitate this type of assessment.