a philosophical essay on probabilities
Laplace wrote this book in 1816. If you've ever worked on problems like "here are two boxes, A and B, the first containing four white and two black balls ..." you'll be interested to know these problems all go back to this book. Laplace said "Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation", and he shows it here. There is an interesting discussion of how many judges should be assigned to a case, and what proportion of them should be required to vote guilty for a guilty verdict to be returned in the book. Laplace shows how to minimize expected loss on this problem.
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