Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency 1999 Table of Contents Author's Preface Foreword by Douglas MacEachin Introduction by Jack Davis PART I--OUR MENTAL MACHINERY Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking; Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can't We See What Is There to Be Seen?; Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know? PART II--TOOLS FOR THINKING Chapter 4: Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information; Chapter 5: Do You Really Need More Information? Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind; Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical Problems Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses PART III--COGNITIVE BIASES Chapter 9: What Are Cognitive Biases?; Chapter 10: Biases in Evaluation of Evidence; Chapter 11: Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect; Chapter 12: Biases in Estimating Probabilities; Chapter 13: Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting PART IV--CONCLUSIONS Chapter 14: Improving Intelligence Analysis