From the Bookshelf This is a fortnightly review of bestsellers for business executives A vision of tomorrow's world by Chris Johnson A respected management expert gazes into his crystal ball It has never been possible for any business enterprise to remain static. Competitors line up to grab market share, new technologies must be implemented, and external economic factors add a constant element of uncertainty. There is, though, an elite group of executives and commentators who seem to possess a sixth sense, which helps them keep ahead of the pack. They have an uncanny ability to discern market trends, foresee seismic changes in the world of work, and determine how day-to-day developments will come together as part of the bigger picture. Foremost among this group was Peter F. Drucker. For much of the 20th century he was acknowledged as one of the most highly respected and authoritative voices on management theory and pointed the way for many of the changes which took place in all corners of the business world. One of his last works, Managing in the Next Society, is a collection of essays and articles, mainly written during the 1990s, which examine two main themes: the effects of the information age and how our lives will be reshaped. Examining the evidence, the author says we should prepare ourselves for something unprecedented and that "most of it is already here, or is rapidly emerging". He identifies in particular the effects of the information revolution as a force which is fundamentally changing society. The advent of e-commerce is likened to the impact of the railroad at the time of the Industrial Revolution, and he predicts that online business in its various forms will alter jobs, the wider economy and maybe even politics. New definitions "Traditional multinationals will, in time, be killed by e-commerce," he notes. What will be needed is "a different mind-set, a different top management, and in the end, different definitions of performance," (p.57). Drucker also points out the crucial role of demographics. Birthrates are declining in the more developed countries. In many cases, this is being accompanied by the decline of manufacturing industry as a key provider of wealth and jobs. Therefore, less work is being done in traditional ways, which has led to the steady transformation of the workplace and its "splintering". As a result, many organisations will have to get used to working in a radically different way. Ownership structures may be modified, part-time or temporary employees will make up a far larger percentage of the payroll, and CEOs will have to move away from the "command and control" style of management. Instead, they will be forced to learn a new set of skills, which allow them to innovate, trust in the knowledge of others, and ensure they "enable management to focus on the business," (p.117). Inevitable change Drucker believes that the so-called new economy may or may not materialise. He is in no doubt, though, about the impending arrival of the "next society", and regards this as a more important development. He predicts that knowledge will be its key resource and that "knowledge workers will be the dominant group". In addition, he suggests we watch out for new protectionism in trade, immigration becoming a hot issue, and educational institutions having to prepare "technologists" to meet new knowledge requirements. Managing in the Next Society presents the general reader with a wealth of thought-provoking insights in an easily accessible style. Examples, ideas and opinions cast light on what many of us should expect to experience in the workplace in the years ahead and on how that will affect the way we live. For executives, an understanding of the "next society" and its implications is essential, since it will ultimately drive almost every policy or strategy decision they make. Content highlights: The world of the Internet and e-commerce is creating a new set of business challenges, but this new economy is clearly still evolving. Companies must be ready to innovate, cut red tape, and pay closer attention to the well-being of all their employees. In future we should expect to see new corporate structures with fewer full-time workers, and a society where every organisation has to be an agent for change. About the authors Peter F. Drucker published The End of Economic Man in 1939, the first of over 30 books, and went on to become one of the most influential thinkers and writers about management theory and the inner workings of business organisations. He received many honorary degrees and awards and, in the course of a distinguished academic career, taught at Bennington, Sarah Lawrence and New York University, as well as at the Claremont Graduate School in California. "His often deeply contrarian insights are authoritatively represented, backed up with rich historical precedents and persuasively argued" - Money magazine Taken from Career Times 17 February 2006 Your comments are welcome at [email protected]